Let the Politicking Begin

This article was originally published Wednesday, July 18.

Candidate announcements. 

Campaign kick-off events. 

Automated calls asking voters about their views on everything from sales tax increases to the Dutra asphalt plant.

That can only mean one thing: campaign season is officially in full swing.

Over the past month, Petaluma residents (the ones who still have land lines, that is) have received two automated calls asking them to weigh in on local issues.

The first asked whether they supported a sales tax increase if it meant additional services for Petaluma.

The other was a 15-question survey on issues like whether city funds should be used to appeal the Dutra asphalt plant decision, if Petaluma had too many fees and regulations that hindered business and whether residents were in favor of the Deer Creek development.

That has led to speculation about who was behind the calls. Was it a candidate? A special interest group?

“Given the phrasing of the questions and what they are asking, this is a baseline survey that’s looking for hot-button issues,” said David Keller, a former Petaluma councilman. “It’s more general that what a candidate would want, but the responses could be used to position various candidates down the road.” 

It turns out that the company behind both of the automated surveys is Delphi, a Santa Rosa political campaign and public relations consultancy run by Herb Williams, an influential pollster once described as “the Karl Rove of Sonoma County.” 

(That's George Bush's senior advisor and deputy chief of staff, a political strategist who helped his candidate get reelected despite a deeply unpopular war.)

Since relocating from San Diego in 1992, Williams has run dozens of Sonoma County campaigns, many of them for conservative and development-oriented candidates, and previously served as regional director of the Republican National Committee.

Williams is now a registered Democrat, but is still considered “the go-to guy for more conservative candidates,” in the words of one local Democratic operative. Although he lives in Santa Rosa, his influence in South County is substantial, having worked on the campaigns of such Petaluma candidates as Jeff Mayne, the former president of Petaluma Downtown Association, councilman Mike Harris, former councilwoman Karen Nau and telecom exec Ray Johnson, now on the city's planning commission.

Reached by Petaluma Patch, Williams declined to say who commissioned the second call, but said it was wrong to assume it was a candidate.

“There is really no news there, considering that it’s something I’ve been doing every single year since 1992,” Williams said. “What kind of a pollster would I be if I didn’t know how people feel about certain issues?”

Under election guidelines, if Williams does the polling on behalf of a candidate or charges money for the information, it has to be reported to the California Federal Political Practices Commission. The next round of FPPC filings are scheduled to be released by the end of this month and are available on the organization's website.

Instead, Williams makes money by collecting retainer fees from businesses, including North Bay Corp., the garbage hauler, and Yardbirds, which may need information as they pursue new contracts, says one political strategist who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

“He doesn’t consider them campaign-related polls, although we all know he’s going to use this information for politics and that people hire him for what he knows,” said the strategist. “But because he uses it carefully, he doesn’t have to declare.”

Others have questioned how accurate automated, or “robo” calls are, when it comes to gauging public sentiment.

Unlike a human pollster, a machine can’t pick up nuances and reduces what can be a complicated question—“Would you like to see fewer cumbersome city regulations so that more developers would be willing to come to Petaluma?—to a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer.

“In polling, you want to give someone all the positives and the negatives and see where they come out and you just don’t get that with robo calling,” said Brian Sobel, a Petaluma-based political consultant.

“It’s a snapshot in time, but not very valid,” Sobel said. “It’s not good enough to just accept results of poll unless you look at its content.”

As November gets closer and candidates seek to stand out from the pack by focusing on vital issues, voters may do well by being cautious about surveys and campaign literature and asking more questions about who is behind them. 

After all, as Delphi's own website reminds us, it's both the sanctity and the curse of democracy that a narrow group of people often determines wide-reaching political trends.

Have you received any robo calls this campaign season? Do you think they are a good way to gauge community sentiment on important local issues? Share your thoughts below.